Temporal Changes of Trust in Institutions among Young Refugees in Germany: Insights from a Longitudinal Survey

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.41741

Keywords:

adolescents, belonging, refugee, trust, purpose in life, institutions

Abstract

This longitudinal study examines trust in institutions among young refugees in Germany. Due to the scarcity of data, an initial exploratory approach was applied and the extent of trust in institutions is described; this is followed by a description of influencing factors on trust in institutions and developments over time. The central finding is that institutional trust initially is relatively high but erodes over time. A time-invariant positive effect at both measurement points is a sense of belonging to Germany. While in the earlier stages of arrival, perceptions of being in control is vital, later questions of purpose in life gain importance.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Author Biography

Daniel Engel, University of Siegen

Daniel Engel is Research Assistant at the Chair of Practical Theology and Religious Education in the Department of Catholic Theology at the University of Siegen. He can be reached at daniel.engel@uni-siegen.de.

References

Adman, P., & Strömblad, P. (2015). Political trust as modest expectations: Exploring immigrants’ falling confidence in Swedish political institutions. Nordic Journal of Migration Research, 5(3), 107–116. https://doi.org/10.1515/njmr-2015-0007

Aljadeeah, S. (2022). Are refugees (really) a hard-to-survey group? Fieldwork experience with Syrian refugees in Germany. Journal of Refugee Studies, 35(3), 1405–1409. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/feac025

Allport, G. W. (1954). The nature of prejudice. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.

André, S. (2014). Does trust mean the same for migrants and natives? Testing measurement models of political trust with multi-group confirmatory factor analysis. Social Indicators Research, 115(3), 963–982. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0246-6

Backhaus, K., Erichson, B., Gensler, S., Weiber, R., & Weiber, T. (2023). Multivariate Analysemethoden. Eine anwendungsorientierte Einführung [Multivariate analysis methods: An application-oriented introduction]. In K. Backhaus, B. Erichson, S. Gensler, R. Weiber, & T. Weiber (Eds.), Multivariate Analysemethoden [Multivariate analysis methods] (pp. 1–61). Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-40465-9_1

Baumann, M., & Nagel, A.-K. (2023). Religion und Migration [Religion and migration]. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG. https://doi.org/10.5771/9783748923053

Beelmann, A., Noack, P., Dingfelder, J., Schmidtke, F., Lutterbach, S., & Schulz, A. (2019). Thüringen-Monitor Integration. Lebenslagen, Einstellungen und Perspektiven von Geflüchteten [Thuringia integration monitor: Life situations, attitudes and perspectives of refugees]. KOMREX Zentrum für Rechtsextremismusforschung, Demokratiebildung und gesellschaftliche Integration Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena. https://www.db-thueringen.de/receive/dbt_mods_00039875

Behnia, B. (2004). Refugees’ convoy of social support. International Journal of Mental Health, 32(4), 6–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207411.2003.11449595

Bekaj, A., & Antara, L. (2018). Political participation of refugees: Bridging the gaps. International IDEA. https://doi.org/10.31752/idea.2018.19

Berger, M., Galonska, C., & Koopmans, R. (2004). Political integration by a detour? Ethnic communities and social capital of migrants in Berlin. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 30(3), 491–507. https://doi.org/10.1080/13691830410001682052

Björnberg, U. (2011). Social relationships and trust in asylum seeking families in Sweden. Sociological Research Online, 16(1), 100–108. https://doi.org/10.5153/sro.2286

Brown, T. A. (2015). Confirmatory factor analysis for applied research. Guilford Press.

Brücker, H., Rother, N., & Schupp, J. (Eds.). (2016). IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten: Überblick und erste Ergebnisse [IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees: Overview and first results]. Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge. https://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Forschung/Forschungsberichte/fb29-iab-bamf-soep-befragung-gefluechtete.html?nn=283560

Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. Erlbaum. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203771587

Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112(1), 155–159. https://doi.org/10.1037//0033-2909.112.1.155

Cook, K. S., & Cook, B. D. (2021). Social and political trust. In G. Delanty, S. P. Turner, & M. Lloyd (Eds.), Routledge international handbook of contemporary social and political theory (pp. 294–303). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003111399-24

Dinesen, P. T. (2012). Does generalized (dis)trust travel? Examining the impact of cultural heritage and destination-country environment on trust of immigrants. Political Psychology, 33(4), 495–511. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2012.00886.x

Dinesen, P. T. (2013). Where you come from or where you live? Examining the cultural and institutional explanation of generalized trust using migration as a natural experiment. European Sociological Review, 29(1), 114–128. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcr044

Dinesen, P. T., & Andersen, R. F. (2022). The (re)socialization of participatory political culture: Immigrants’ political participation between their contemporary country and their ancestral country. Political Geography, 98, Article 102650. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102650

Dinesen, P. T., & Hooghe, M. (2010). When in Rome, do as the Romans do: The acculturation of generalized trust among immigrants in western Europe. International Migration Review, 44(3), 697–727. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2010.00822.x

Dinkelaker, S., Huke, N., & Tietje, O. (Eds.). (2021). Nach der »Willkommenskultur«: Geflüchtete zwischen umkämpfter Teilhabe und zivilgesellschaftlicher Solidarität [After the “welcome culture”: Refugees between contested participation and civil society solidarity]. Transcript Verlag. https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839454145

Doerschler, P., & Irving Jackson, P. (2011). Do Muslims in Germany really fail to integrate? Muslim integration and trust in public institutions. Journal of International Migration and Integration, 13, 503–523. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-011-0220-6

Engel, D. (2025). Die Erforschung politischer Partizipation geflüchteter Jugendlicher. Eine erste Validierung der Skala ‚Politische Partizipation und Religiosität‘ (PPR) [Research into the political participation of young refugees: An initial validation of the “political participation and religiosity” (PPR) scale]. Zeitschrift für Religion, Gesellschaft und Politik. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41682-025-00218-6

Erikson, E. H. (1994). Identity: Youth and crisis. W. W. Norton.

Faas, T., Gabriel, O. W., & Maier, J. (Eds.). (2020). Politikwissenschaftliche Einstellungs- und Verhaltensforschung [Attitude and behavioral research in political science]. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG. https://doi.org/10.5771/9783845264899

Ferrín Pereira, M., & Kriesi, H. (Eds.). (2016). How Europeans view and evaluate democracy. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198766902.001.0001

García-Alandete, J., de Tejada, B. G. H., Pérez Rodríguez, S., & Marco-Salvador, J. H. (2019). Meaning in life among adolescents: Factorial invariance of the purpose in life test and buffering effect on the relationship between emotional dysregulation and hopelessness. Clinical Psychology & Psychotherapy, 26(1), 24–34. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpp.2327

Gebauer, C. (2024). German welcome culture then and now: How crisis narration can foster (contested) solidarity with refugees. Diegesis: Interdisziplinäres E-Journal für Erzählforschung/Interdisciplinary E-Journal for Narrative Research, 12(2), 92–116. https://doi.org/10.25926/FJTG-WR87

Giugni, M., & Grasso, M. (2020). Trust, identity, skills, or recruitment? Assessing four explanations of the relationship between associational involvement and the political participation of migrants. International Migration Review, 54(2), 585–610. https://doi.org/10.1177/0197918319856362

Haerpfer, C., Inglehart, R., Moreno, A., Welzel, C., Kizilova, K., Diez-Medrano, J., Lagos, M., Norris, P., Ponarin, E., & Puranen, B. (2022). World values survey wave 7 (2017–2022) cross-national data-set. World Values Survey Association. https://doi.org/10.14281/18241.20

Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., & Anderson, R. E. (2019). Multivariate data analysis (8th ed.). Cengage.

Halapuu, V., Paas, T., Tammaru, T., & Schütz, A. (2013). Is institutional trust related to pro-immigrant attitudes? A pan-European evidence. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 54(5–6), 572–93. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2014.908313

Hall, J., & Werner, K. (2022). Trauma and rrust: How war exposure shapes social and institutional trust among refugees. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, Article 786838. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.786838

Häusler, A. (2017). AfD, Pegida & Co.: Die Formierung einer muslimfeindlichen rechten Bewegung [AfD, Pegida & Co.: The formation of an anti-Muslim right-wing movement]. In P. Antes & R. Ceylan (Eds.), Muslime in Deutschland. Islam in der Gesellschaft [Muslims in Germany: Islam in society] (pp. 59–74). Springer VS. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-15115-7_4

Helliwell, J. F., & Putnam, R. D. (2004). The social context of well-being. In F. A. Huppert, N. Baylis, & B. Keverne (Eds.), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 359(1449), 1435–1446. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2004.1522

Hess, S., Kasparek, B., Kron, S., Rodatz, M., Schwertl, M., & Sontowski, S. (Eds.). (2017). Der lange Sommer der Migration [The long summer of migration]. Assoziation A.

Hetherington, M. J. (2005). Why trust matters: Declining political trust and the demise of American liberalism. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv301fkq

Hierl, K. (2012). Die Islamisierung der deutschen Integrationsdebatte: Zur Konstruktion kultureller Identitäten, Differenzen und Grenzziehungen im postkolonialen Diskurs [The Islamization of the German integration debate: On the construction of cultural identities, differences and boundaries in postcolonial discourse]. LIT.

Hooghe, M. (2018). Trust and elections. In E. M. Uslaner (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of social and political trust (pp. 617–631). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190274801.001.0001

Huber, S., & Huber, O. W. (2012). The centrality of religiosity scale (CRS). Religions, 3(3), 710–724. https://doi.org/10.3390/rel3030710

Hynes, P. (2009). Contemporary compulsory dispersal and the absence of space for the restoration of trust. Journal of Refugee Studies, 22(1), 97–121. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/fen049

Jäckle, S., & König, P. D. (2017). The dark side of the German “welcome culture”: Investigating the causes behind attacks on refugees in 2015. West European Politics, 40(2), 223–251. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2016.1215614

Johnston, L. G., & Sabin, K. (2010). Sampling hard-to-reach populations with respondent driven sampling. Methodological Innovations Online, 5(2), 38–48. https://doi.org/10.4256/mio.2010.0017

Klein, C., & Albani, C. (2007). Religiosität und psychische Gesundheit. Eine Übersicht über Befunde, Erklärungsansätze und Konsequenzen für die klinische Praxis [Religiosity and mental health: An overview of findings, explanatory approaches and consequences for clinical practice]. Psychiatrische Praxis, 34(2), 58–65. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-2006-940095

Kühne, S., Jacobsen, J., & Kroh, M. (2019). Sampling in times of high immigration: The survey process of the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees. Survey Methods: Insights from the Field. https://doi.org/10.13094/SMIF-2019-00005

Lott, G. (2023). The Dublin Convention and the introduction of the “first entry rule” in the allocation of asylum seekers in Europe. Contemporary European History, 32(3), 459–474. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0960777321000746

Lutterbach, S., & Beelmann, A. (2021). How refugees’ stereotypes toward host society members predict acculturation orientations: The role of perceived discrimination. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, Article 612427. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.612427

Lyytinen, E. (2017). Refugees’ “journeys of trust”: Creating an analytical framework to examine refugees’ exilic journeys with a focus on trust. Journal of Refugee Studies, 30(4), 489–510. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/few035

Maddox, A. (2024). Institutionenvertrauen Geflüchteter in Deutschland (Kurzanalyse 02|2024) [Institutional trust of refugees in Germany]. Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge. https://doi.org/10.48570/bamf.fz.ka.02/2024.d.04/2024.institutionenvertrauen.1.0

Maxwell, R. (2010). Evaluating migrant integration: Political attitudes across generations in Europe. International Migration Review, 44(1), 25–52. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2009.00797.x

Moshagen, M., & Bader, M. (2023). semPower: General power analysis for structural equation models. Behavior Research Methods, 56(4), 2901–2922. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-023-02254-7

Müssig, S. (2020). Politische Partizipation von Menschen mit Migrations-hintergrund in Deutschland: Eine Quantitativ-Empirische Analyse [Political participation of people with a migration background in Germany: A quantitative-empirical analysis]. Springer VS. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-30415-7

Müssig, S., & Stichs, A. (2012). Der Einfluss des Besuches religiöser Veranstaltungen auf die soziale Integration von christlichen und muslimischen Migranten der ersten Generation [The influence of attending religious events on the social integration of first-generation Christian and Muslim migrants]. In D. Pollack, I. Tucci, & H.-G. Ziebertz (Eds.), Religiöser Pluralismus im Fokus quantitativer Religionsforschung [Religious pluralism in the focus of quantitative religious research] (pp. 299–330). Springer VS. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-18697-9_11

Newton, K., Stolle, D., & Zmerli, S. (2018). Social and political trust. In E. M. Uslaner (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of social and political trust (pp. 37–56). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190274801.001.0001

Okamoto, D. G., Tropp, L. R., Marrow, H. B., & Jones-Correa, M. (2020). Welcoming, trust, and civic engagement: Immigrant integration in metropolitan America. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 690(1), 61–81. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716220927661

Olsen, R. (2008). Self-selection bias. In P. J. Lavrakas (Ed.), Encyclopedia of survey research methods (pp. 809–809). Sage Publications. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412963947.n526

Park, C. L., & Slattery, J. M. (2013). Religion, spirituality, and mental health. In R. L. Paloutzian & C. L. Park (Eds.), Handbook of the psychology of religion and spirituality (2nd ed., pp. 540–559). The Guilford Press.

Penthin, M., Christ, A., Kröner, S., Pirner, M. L., & Scheunpflug, A. (2023). Does teachers’ spirituality make a difference? The explanatory value of spirituality and religiosity for teachers’ professional beliefs on teaching and learning. Religion & Education, 50(2–3), 159–190. https://doi.org/10.1080/15507394.2023.2185051

Pickel, G., & Pickel, S. (2019). Der „Flüchtling“ Als Muslim—Und Unerwünschter Mitbürger? [The “refugee” as a Muslim—and undesirable fellow citizen?] In O. Hidalgo & G. Pickel (Eds.), Flucht und Migration in Europa [Flight and migration in Europe] (pp. 279–323). Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-23309-9_12

Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community. Simon & Schuster.

Rask, S., Koponen, P., Skoberg, N., Kuusio, H., & Castaneda, A. (2019). Collecting high-quality survey data on hard-to-reach populations: Lessons from Finland. European Journal of Public Health, 29(Supplement 4), Article ckz185.009. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckz185.009

Röder, A., & Mühlau, P. (2011). Discrimination, exclusion and immigrants’ confidence in public institutions in Europe. European Societies, 13(4), 535–557. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2011.597869

Röder, A., & Mühlau, P. (2012). Low expectations or different evaluations: What explains immigrants’ high levels of trust in host-country institutions? Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 38(5), 777–792. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2012.667986

Rosseel, Y. (2012). lavaan: An R package for structural equation modelling. Journal of Statistical Software, 48(2), 1–36. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v048.i02

Rothstein, B., & Stolle, D. (2008). The state and social capital: An institutional theory of generalized trust. Comparative Politics, 40(4), 441–459. https://doi.org/10.5129/001041508X12911362383354

Satow, L. (2012). SCI. Stress- und Coping-Inventar (Verfahrensdokumentation, Fragebogen, Skalendokumentation und Beispielprofile) [SCI: Stress and coping inventory (procedural documentation, questionnaire, scale documentation and sample profiles)]. In Leibniz-Institut für Psychologie (ZPID) (Ed.), Open test archive. ZPID. https://doi.org/10.23668/psycharchives.4604

Schildkraut, D. J. (2005). The rise and fall of political engagement among Latinos: The role of identity and perceptions of discrimination. Political Behavior, 27(3), 285–312. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-005-4803-9

Schlozman, K. L., Brady, H. E., & Verba, S. (2018). Unequal and unrepresented: Political inequality and the people’s voice in the New Gilded Age. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc7772p

Schwiertz, H., & Ratfisch, P. (2015). Antimigrantische Politik und der «Sommer der Migration» [Antimigrant politics and the “summer of migration”]. Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung. https://www.rosalux.de/publikation/id/8653/antimigrantische-politik-und-der-sommer-der-migration

Scuzzarello, S. (2015). Political participation and dual identification among migrants. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 41(8), 1214–1234. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2015.1022517

Serrano-Maillo, A. (2018). Generalized trust and attitudes toward refugees in Portugal and Spain. In H. Kury & S. Redo (Eds.), Refugees and migrants in law and policy (pp. 401–220). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72159-0_18

Sohlberg, J., Agerberg, M., & Esaiasson, P. (2022). Waiting for asylum: Reduced institutional and interpersonal trust. Political Studies, 1(72), 343–363. https://doi.org/10.1177/00323217221103728

Strömblad, P., & Adman, P. (2010, March 22–27). Exploring political trust among immigrants in Scandinavia. ECPR Joint Sessions in Münster, 22–27 March 2010, Session 19: Institutional Performance and Political Support in Europe. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-16036

Sundbäck, L. (2023). Trust shaping in forced migrants’ institutional encounters in the Finnish welfare state. Nordic Journal of Migration Research, 13(2), Article 7. https://doi.org/10.33134/njmr.532

Superti, C., & Gidron, N. (2022). Too old to forget: The dynamics of political trust among immigrants. Political Studies, 70(3), 624–654. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321720980899

SVR-Migration. (2020). SVR-Integrationsbarometer 2020: Methodenbericht [SVR integration barometer 2020: Methodology report]. https://www.svr-migration.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/SVR_IB2020_Methodenbericht.pdf

Tanis, K. (2024). Einbürgerung und politisches Interesse von Geflüchteten [Naturalization and political interest of refugees] (Kurzanalyse 07/2024). Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge. https://doi.org/10.48570/bamf.fz.ka.07/2024.d.2024. einbuergerung.1.0

Toubøl, J. (2019). From democratic participation to civic resistance: The loss of institutional trust as an outcome of activism in the refugee solidarity movement. The British Journal of Sociology, 70(4), 1198–1224. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.12622

Uslaner, E. M. (2002). The moral foundations of trust. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511614934

Uslaner, E. M. (2008). Where you stand depends upon where your grandparents sat: The inheritability of generalized trust. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(4), 725–740. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn058

Uslaner, E. M. (Ed.). (2018). The Oxford handbook of social and political trust. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190274801.001.0001

Uslucan, H.-H. (2016). Religion und Migration: Vom Nutzen und Nachteil religiöser Lebensführung [Religion and migration: The benefits and disadvantages of a religious lifestyle]. In H. U. Brinkmann & M. Sauer (Eds.), Einwanderungsgesellschaft Deutschland: Entwicklung und Stand der Integration [Immigration society Germany: Development and status of integration] (pp. 201–226). Springer VS. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-05746-6_8

Uslucan, H.-H., & Sauer, M. (2020). Participation and party preferences among immigrants of turkish origin in Germany. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 17(68), 113–128. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.865541

van der Meer, T., & Hakhverdian, A. (2017). Political trust as the evaluation of process and performance: A cross-national study of 42 European countries. Political Studies, 65(1), 81–102. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321715607514

van Deth, J. (2016). What is political participation? In Oxford research encyclopedias: Politics. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.68

Vårheim, A. (2014). Trust and the role of the public library in the integration of refugees: The case of a northern Norwegian city. Journal of Librarianship and Information Science, 46(1), 62–69. https://doi.org/10.1177/0961000614523636

Verba, S., Schlozman, K. L., & Brady, H. E. (1995). Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics. Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1pnc1k7

Vintila, D., & Martiniello, M. (2021). Migrants political participation beyond electoral arenas. In M. Giugni & M. Grasso (Eds.), Handbook of citizenship and migration (pp. 303–316). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789903133.00029

Voicu, B., & Tufiş, C. D. (2017). Migrating trust: Contextual determinants of international migrants’ confidence in political institutions. European Political Science Review, 9(3), 351–373. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773915000417

Warren, M. E. (2018). Trust and democracy. In E. M. Uslaner (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of social and political trust (pp. 75–94). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190274801.001.0001

Will, G., Homuth, C., von Maurice, J., & Roßbach, H.-G. (2021). Integration of recently arrived underage refugees: Research potential of the study ReGES—Refugees in the German educational system. European Sociological Review, 36(6), 1027–1043. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcab033

Ziegler, P., Hajji, R., & Voß, G. (2023). Die Lebenszufriedenheit von Geflüchteten in Deutschland—auch eine Frage von Aufnahmeland-bedingungen, Assimilation und Zugehörigkeit? [The life satisfaction of refugees in Germany—Also a question of reception country conditions, assimilation and belonging?]. Prävention und Gesundheitsförderung, 19, 189–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11553-023-01049-

Published

2026-01-28

How to Cite

Engel, D. (2026). Temporal Changes of Trust in Institutions among Young Refugees in Germany: Insights from a Longitudinal Survey. Refuge: Canada’s Journal on Refugees, 41(2), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.41741

Similar Articles

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.