Issues in Quantitative Modelling in the Early Warning of Refugee Migration

Abstract

This article discusses the problems associated with indicator analysis for the purpose of early warning. While the authors endorse the idea of quantitative EWM, they are sceptical of the understanding that many have of what EW analysis entails. In this article, they identify the limits of quantitative EW analysis and address many of the major problems that confront those who are committed to quantitative EW analysis. In particular, the authors discuss the following issues that need to be addressed when engaging in quantitative early warning analysis: the problem of "late warning;" problems of contextual sensitivity; problems of temporal development; data availability and measurement; and problems with the definition of the appropriate unit of analysis.